NFL: New season but no easy answers

Seven months after Super Bowl XLVI, the NFL returns, as the New York Giants, dramatic winners that night in Indianapolis, kick the season off tonight against divisional rivals the Dallas Cowboys.

As ever, the NFL is difficult to predict, as parity measures mean that talent is spread around, and the playoff system ensures that the end of season is always surprising. Twelve of the 32 teams have a realistic shot at the title, and six more will feel that they are genuine contenders, albeit that they are probably outside shots at this stage.

Contenders: New England Patriots, New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans, San Francisco 49ers.

Outsiders: New York Jets, Detroit Lions, Carolina Panthers, San Diego Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos.

If 2011 was hard to predict because of the lockout that deprived teams of valuable offseason time to install systems and work with rookies, this year it feels like there are even more unknown factors, not least the number of new faces. There are ten first or second year quarterbacks starting in 2012, of whom only two (Carolina's Cam Newton and Cincinnati's Andy Dalton) have significant playing time under their belts. Seven teams have new head coaches. Most are unlikely to make the playoffs, though Romeo Crennell's Kansas City Chiefs could win a mediocre division if he continues where he left off as interim coach last year, and Greg Schiano's Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be a surprise wild card if his disciplinarian approach galvanises a talented roster in the manner of Jim Harbaugh in San Francisco.

Even the established teams have question marks. Thanks to the bounty scandal, the New Orleans Saints are without head coach Sean Payton for the season and interim head coach Joe Vitt for half. The New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers dominated the 2011 regular season by virtue of their high-powered offenses, but ranked 31^st and 32^nd respectively on defense. Both have new players on that side of the ball, and if they produce right away, it might be enough to take them to the Super Bowl. The reigning champions will start strong, but it is easy to forget that the Giants were only 9-7 last year, and have less weapons, whilst the problems on the offensive line and in the secondary remain unresolved. Expect them to struggle to beat the Eagles for a place in the playoffs.

The Houston Texans were one of 2011's best teams after years of false dawns. Had quarterback Matt Schaub not been injured, they might have progressed to the Super Bowl. With Schaub fit again, they are a fashionable pick to get to there this year. However, they have had a difficult offseason, losing the right side of their offensive line, pass-rusher Mario Williams, receiver Jacoby Jones, and tight end Joel Dreessen. This will make it harder for them in 2012, especially without the element of surprise, but being in a weak AFC South makes them a probable playoff team, and once there, anything can happen.

In the NFC, the 49ers are a similarly fashionable pick after their run to the championship game last year. One of the NFL's best defences has managed to retain all 11 starters, whilst on offense they have added Randy Moss, Mario Manningham and Brandon Jacobs. Despite this, they too may struggle to repeat their feats from a year ago. No-one is going to be caught by surprise this year, and well as Alex Smith played in 2011, questions remain about his ability to get the ball to his receivers. If he cannot capitalise on the presence of his new deep threats, difficult characters like Moss and Jacobs may begin to agitate, the fans will get on Smith's back, and Jim Harbaugh will face difficult choices.

Then there is the perennial impact of injuries. Michael Vick and Matthew Stafford both have poor track records with fitness, and injury to either would derail their teams. The Bears looked like contenders last year until Jay Cutler and Matt Forte went down, whilst the Ravens start the season without defensive star Terrell Suggs, and the Steelers have problems on the offensive line.

Who then, will cast these questions aside and win in New Orleans in February? Unsurprisingly, the two most complete outfits appear to be Green Bay and New England, as they were the two best teams in the 2011 regular season, and the Patriots went to the Super Bowl. If they can make stops on defense, it is hard to bet against either, although it is rare for both top seeds to make it through. Nonetheless, the AFC is weak this year, whilst the Packers have a point to prove after last year's playoff failure, so Corinthian Spirit's pick for the Super Bowl is for the Packers to beat the Patriots in another thriller (there are no straightforward Super Bowl victories these days).

At the other end of the scale, the race for next year's number one overall draft pick is probably between the Arizona Cardinals, Oakland Raiders, Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts and Raiders have two of the weakest rosters in the league, whilst the Cardinals have confusion at quarterback, and the Jaguars' Blaine Gabbert looked like a rabbit in the headlights last year. It probably comes down to the Raiders and Colts, with a very real possibility that Indianapolis could be picking at number one for the second year in a row.

Regardless of these predictions, there are no dull moments in the NFL, and there are plenty of other storylines to keep the fans entertained between now and February. Will Peyton Manning be back to his best? How much of Tim Tebow will we see? Which teams will be inexplicably bad, or surprisingly good? The answers are only hours away.